Marie-Hélène Caillol: Political Anticipation of Global Systemic Crisis #060
The president of the European Laboratory of Political Anticipation discusses their method of political forecasting, the global systemic crisis, the transition from petrodollar to petroyuan, Brexit, the Middle East and more.
About GEAB and LEAP
A decision support tool
The GEAB is a monthly, affordable, decision and analysis support instrument intended for all those for whom the understanding of future world developments examined from a truly European perspective constitutes a significant part of their work or project: advisors, consultants, financiers, economists, researchers, experts, heads of public institutions, research centres and international businesses, or major NGOs.
GEAB is at the origin of the concept of ‘global systemic crisis’
As early as February 15th, the second issue of the GlobalEurope Anticipation Bulletin (GEAB N°2 announced that an international political, economic and monetary crisis was to be triggered in the course of the last week of March 2006. The public announcement summing up this position toured the world, raising virulent criticisms of course, but above all warm thanks and vivid gratefulness for having opened a debate considered a healthy one.
A tribute: three years before he died on July 2nd 2009, French prospectivist Pierre Gonod analyzed LEAP’s work of anticipation
“LEAP has anticipated a “Global Systemic Crisis”, its calendar and its steps. I haven’t come across any such strong positioning in the microcosm of forward studies for a long time. A brave attitude contrasting with the profession’s current pusillanimity. Years ago already, French forward studies have given up on global anticipation. Why? Probably because of the growing complexity of the world that a simplistic way of thinking cannot grasp. Maybe also because our time is invaded by political correctness and has become unable to envisage radical breaks. LEAP must be praised for changing this….
From January 2006 to October 2012 the GEAB was edited and coordinated by Franck Biancheri, LEAP’s director of studies and strategies and creator of the political anticipation method. Since Franck Biancheri’s death, each issue is edited by Marie-Hélène Caillol and coordinated by Sylvain Périfel, using our research teams to the full.
- Global systemic crisis watch
- Analysis of topical political, economic and financial subjects
- Identification of relevant pointers, trend analysis, anticipating changes
- Monitoring the Dollar, the US economy, the global economy, financial markets,…; anticipating changes
- Monitoring the Euro, the European economy, developments in European governance…; anticipating changes
- Monitoring the BRICS countries’ emergence, economic indicators, global rebalancing, global governance…; anticipating changes
- Implications of the crisis for security and defence, politics, public opinion…
- Identifying promising future paths
- Strategic recommendations to directors and managers
- Investment advice and asset protection
*Podcast intro music is from the song “The Queens Jig” by “Musicke & Mirth” from their album “Music for Two Lyra Viols”: http://musicke-mirth.de/en/recordings.html (available on iTunes or Amazon)